On the Dynamics of Racial Segregation and Inequality

Professor Bayer’s presentation will be based on two of his published journal articles.The Long Road to Equality: Racial Capital and Generational Convergence Abstract: The slow convergence of racial disparities in economic outcomes since 1870 suggests a high degree of intergenerational persistence in socioeconomic status at the group level.

In contrast, microdata-based estimates of family-level intergenerational mobility suggest much lower persistence. These models also consistently find large, unexplained racial gaps in mobility—even after controlling extensively for family and neighborhood characteristics—implying continued slow convergence in the future.

To reconcile these patterns, we introduce the concept of racial capital: the collective material and nonmaterial assets of the racial groups to which a child is exposed while growing up. We show that racial capital (i) explains a substantial share of racial gaps in adult outcomes, (ii) significantly narrows and often reverses estimated racial mobility gaps, and (iii) has the strongest effects where racial dissociation from the White majority group is greatest, as measured by residential and marriage segregation.

Unlike standard models, our framework predicts a long-run steady state of near racial equality but also highlights how the influence of racial capital substantially slows the path to that equilibrium.Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest Neighbor Design Abstract: We study neighborhood choice using a novel research design that contrasts the move rate of homeowners who receive a new different-race neighbor immediately next-door versus slightly further away on the same block.

This approach isolates a component of household preferences directly attributable to their neighbors’ identities. Both Black and White homeowners are more likely to move after receiving a new different-race neighbor.

These findings are robust to additional controls (e.g., income) and alternative research designs. We find evidence of heterogeneity in responses, especially associated with housing density, which has implications for understanding contemporary neighborhood racial change and the prospects for maintaining stable, integrated neighborhoods.